A shooting at the White House Correspondents' Association dinner on April 25 has become the latest sign of escalating political violence in the United States, with experts pointing to intensifying polarization, deep-seated societal fractures and eroding trust in institutions as key drivers.

They warn that the trend shows no signs of abating and could leave lasting damage on the country's political fabric.

The incident — in which an armed man breached a security checkpoint, exchanged fire with Secret Service agents and prompted the evacuation of President Donald Trump and other senior officials — underscores the vulnerability of even the most heavily protected venues.

Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University in Jiangsu province, said the incident reflects the intensity of internal divisions and extremist sentiment in US society, alongside partisan animosity caused by current policies.

It follows a string of politically motivated attacks across the political spectrum.

Trump has survived two previous assassination attempts, while right-wing activist Charlie Kirk was killed at a university event, and Democratic state lawmaker Melissa Hortman and her husband were shot dead at their home in what authorities described as a political assassination.

Zhu attributed this surge to deepening societal polarization caused by controversial policies, particularly on immigration and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion initiatives, as well as the country's permissive gun ownership environment.

Sun Chenghao, head of the US-Europe Program at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy, identified a fundamental deficit of institutional trust as a key driver.

While formal channels for political participation such as elections, lobbying and litigation remain, many have lost faith in their ability to really solve problems, Sun said.

"When voters believe elections are rigged, the media as untrustworthy and the courts as politicized, some extremists may resort to violence to bypass the failed system," he said.

Political threats have also expanded across levels of government officials. Elected officials report a rise in death threats, prompting more states to allow campaign funds to be used for security.

The US Capitol Police has recorded a third consecutive annual increase in threat assessment cases, investigating nearly 15,000 incidents last year — up from 9,474 in 2024 — involving concerning statements and behavior directed at members of Congress, their families and staff members.

'Systemic threat'

Sun described this as a shift from "symbolic assassination" to a "systemic threat". While past political violence often targeted presidents and senior officials, it now extends to rank-and-file lawmakers, local officials and their families.

"This reflects how political conflict in the US has spread beyond individual leaders to the broader system of governance," Sun said.

"Many public positions have become highly ideological battlegrounds, with election workers branded as manipulators, judges as partisan tools, and lawmakers as traitors," he said.

"Behind this is the collapse of a shared factual foundation. Civic identity is being overwhelmed by political identity, with authority framed in stark friend-versus-enemy terms," he added.

A report by the Polarization Research Lab found that an overwhelming majority of people in the US now view political violence as a major national threat, prompting many to curtail their political expression out of fear.

Sun said the rising prevalence of such violence could have a profound impact on US politics.

In the short term, it may heighten fear and deter public engagement by political figures; over time, it risks further eroding the openness and representativeness of the US democratic system, he said.

Despite bipartisan calls for unity following the April 25 shooting, analysts say entrenched polarization and contentious policy debates make any near-term decline in political violence unlikely.

Unless the US can reduce political polarization, curb inflammatory rhetoric, address gun violence, and rebuild basic trust in its institutions, political violence will remain a "chronic disease", steadily eroding the country's democratic quality and governance capabilities, Sun said.

Agencies contributed to this story.